Texas drought, shifting markets shape 2026 crop outlook

GAINESVILLE, Texas — Texas row crop producers are heading into the 2026 planting season facing drought concerns, volatile commodity markets and tightening profit margins, according to agricultural economists. La Niña conditions have kept much of the state "warm and dry since the fall," cotton economist John Robinson said. While the pattern is expected to fade by March, dryness could persist through critical planting periods across the Texas cotton calendar — conditions that "contrast sharply with last year's wetter-than-normal conditions" and raise drought risk. Cotton exports account for 65 to 80 percent of U.S. production and respond quickly to global demand signals. Input costs continue to outpace gains in market prices, squeezing margins for producers across the state. Grain markets present a mixed picture. U.S. corn plantings reached roughly 89.8 million acres in 2024, up more than 8 million from the prior year. Current futures prices reflect soybeans near $10.68 per bushel and corn near $3.80, with competitive returns and trade positioning potentially strengthening soybean prices further in 2026. Wheat adds another layer of uncertainty. The U.S. accounts for roughly 10 percent of global wheat exports, and grain economist Mark Welch noted that "geopolitical outcomes could impact crop prices" as trade policy shifts play out on the world stage. For Cooke County producers, the combination of early-season drought risk and volatile commodity markets means careful planning will be essential heading into spring planting. Local conditions and agricultural guidance can be accessed through the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service office in Cooke County.